Predicting race times

It is a good idea to have some idea of how fast you can expect to finish a race, so that you know what pace to start at.  If you are an experienced runner, you may be able to predict your race time from previous races, perhaps at different distances (either longer or shorter).  There are various equations and tables based on evidence about how much runners slow down as the distance increases to help you do this.  These are only guides, although they are sometimes remarkably accurate.   But they will only work if you actually train for the distance at which you are planning to race. The best way to estimate your race time is to use the race time predictor here on this website. That will calculate your estimate time based on your age and gender, as well as your exact previous performance.

Race time equivalence table

This table provides approximate equivalent times for races at different distances. It is based on averaging a combination of different approaches. You can use it to get a rough idea of how you might perform at one distance if you have previously raced a different distance. But it assumes you have actually trained for the distance at which you are racing. This approach is less precise than the race time predictor elsewhere on this website, but it may be useful if you want to a generic guide.


1 mile

5 km

10 km
Half
Marathon

Marathon
VO2
max
04:12 14:24 30:00 01:05:54 02:18:03 73
04:21 14:53 31:00 01:08:06 02:22:39 70
04:29 15:22 32:00 01:10:19 02:27:16 67
04:38 15:51 33:00 01:12:31 02:31:53 65
04:46 16:20 34:00 01:14:43 02:36:29 63
04:55 16:49 35:00 01:16:56 02:41:05 61
05:03 17:18 36:00 01:19:08 02:45:41 59
05:12 17:47 37:00 01:21:21 02:50:17 57
05:21 18:16 38:00 01:23:33 02:54:53 55
05:29 18:45 39:00 01:25:45 02:59:28 54
05:38 19:13 40:00 01:27:58 03:04:03 52
05:46 19:42 41:00 01:30:10 03:08:38 50
05:55 20:11 42:00 01:32:23 03:13:13 49
06:03 20:40 43:00 01:34:35 03:17:48 48
06:12 21:09 44:00 01:36:47 03:22:23 46
06:20 21:38 45:00 01:38:59 03:26:57 45
06:29 22:06 46:00 01:41:12 03:31:31 44
06:37 22:35 47:00 01:43:24 03:36:05 43
06:46 23:04 48:00 01:45:36 03:40:39 42
06:54 23:33 49:00 01:47:48 03:45:12 41
07:03 24:02 50:00 01:50:00 03:49:46 40
07:12 24:30 51:00 01:52:12 03:54:19 39
07:20 24:59 52:00 01:54:24 03:58:52 38
07:29 25:28 53:00 01:56:36 04:03:25 37
07:37 25:57 54:00 01:58:48 04:07:58 37
07:46 26:25 55:00 02:01:00 04:12:31 36
07:54 26:54 56:00 02:03:12 04:17:03 35
08:03 27:23 57:00 02:05:23 04:21:35 34
08:11 27:52 58:00 02:07:35 04:26:07 34
08:20 28:20 59:00 02:09:47 04:30:39 33
08:29 28:49 60:00 02:11:59 04:35:11 32
08:37 29:18 01:01:00 02:14:10 04:39:43 32
08:46 29:47 01:02:00 02:16:22 04:44:15 31
08:54 30:15 01:03:00 02:18:33 04:48:46 30
09:03 30:44 01:04:00 02:20:45 04:53:17 30
09:11 31:13 01:05:00 02:22:56 04:57:49 29
09:20 31:41 01:06:00 02:25:08 05:02:20 29
09:29 32:10 01:07:00 02:27:19 05:06:51 28
09:37 32:39 01:08:00 02:29:30 05:11:22 28
09:46 33:08 01:09:00 02:31:42 05:15:52 27
09:54 33:36 01:10:00 02:33:53 05:20:23 27
10:03 34:05 01:11:00 02:36:04 05:24:54 26
10:11 34:34 01:12:00 02:38:15 05:29:24 26
10:20 35:03 01:13:00 02:40:26 05:33:54 26
10:29 35:31 01:14:00 02:42:37 05:38:25 25
10:37 36:00 01:15:00 02:44:48 05:42:55 25
10:46 36:29 01:16:00 02:46:59 05:47:25 24
10:54 36:58 01:17:00 02:49:10 05:51:55 24
11:03 37:26 01:18:00 02:51:21 05:56:25 24
11:11 37:55 01:19:00 02:53:32 06:00:55 23

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